Posts Tagged ‘math’

Longevity

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

This morning, while in that strange mental housecleaning that happens between sleeping and waking, I had the sudden realization that if my son should be lucky enough to live to age 91, he will see the year 2100.

This is a fact of mathematics, but it seems more profound to me. We just (a decade ago) got through the dawn of the new millennium, and I already may have a connection to the twenty-second century.

Perhaps this is a more subtle “feature” of parenting that I’m only now discovering, that our children are a legacy we leave for the future. But I think it’s also significant to remember that if we’re lucky, we spend a good amount of time on this planet.

We shouldn’t waste it.

Twenty-Eight

Sunday, June 13th, 2010

A long time ago, when, I was studying physics at an engineering college, I had gotten proficient at “B.S.”-ing math problems on exams.

I had nothing on Abbott and Costello:

I’d seen this clip a few years ago but had forgotten about it. Hat tip to Epic Win FTW for the reminder.

Happy Pi Day

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

Happy Pi Day!

Pi is, as pretty much all of you know, a mathematical constant equal to the ratio of a circle’s circumference to its diameter.

Why is today Pi Day?  Pi rounded to two decimal places is 3.14, and today’s date is March 14 (written 3/14, if you’re in North America).

Mathophiles around the world will hold parties today glorifying the number pi and the humble circle.  And very likely, eating the circular dessert of similar name.

Even the has gotten in on the action!  The House yesterday passed a bipartisan resolution recognizing Pi Day as March 14.

This is the first Pi Day of the Obama administration, and this symbolic move by Congress seems even a bit more so.  This Pi Day comes in the week when President Obama lifted the federal ban on stem-cell research, winning a victory for medicine and reason over religious zealotry and fundamentalism.  As we emerge from a science-hostile Bush administration, it’s great to see members of Congress feeling “geeked up about [Pi Day]” (Rep. Brian Baird, D-WA).

How will you be celebrating Pi Day?

A Day at the Races

Friday, August 22nd, 2008

Today I had the good fortune to go to the Saratoga Raceway for the first time. Despite living in the Albany area for eleven years of my life, this was my first opportunity that coincided with the desire to go.

I bet a total of $11 and left with $5. Not a great return, but then again, I wasn’t exactly betting sure-thing bets.

Reading the daily program was like reading a table of random numbers. There were the horses’ records and the jockeys’ records; each of their performances during varying track conditions; total prize money won this year, last year, and in their careers; and a detailed breakdown of their last few races, including split times and the color underwear the jockey was wearing. It amazed me not that so much information was kept, but that there are consumers of that information out there somewhere.

I’m not much of a gambler, probably because I know math a little too well. Even if you’ve never studied probability, it doesn’t matter. Look around: there’s no shortage of money. It’s coming from somewhere, and that somewhere is the difference between their average intake and their average payout. Ironically, the most successful businesses are those based on risk: gaming and insurance. Actually, their risk is fixed; your risk is not. Over a long-term average, the house always makes money. It doesn’t matter how one individual does at the track. The collective performance of the thousands of race enthusiasts pretty much always averages out to a profit for the raceway.

Does knowing the mathematics of gambling take the fun out of it? Yeah, a little. But going for the races itself wasn’t enough excitement. Sure, there was beer and food available. But ultimately the action centered around 90-second races punctuated by 30-minute intermissions. The betting is what made it fun, whether you choose to bet a ten-cent superfecta or a hundred bucks on the favorite to win.

The Amethyst Initiative

Wednesday, August 20th, 2008

A few prominent college administrators want to reopen the debate about the legal drinking age, collectively calling their effort the Amethyst Initiative. Almost a hundred college presidents have announced that they want the drinking age changed from 21 to 18:

College chiefs urge new debate on drinking age

Before I weigh in, I wanted to nitpick a tiny bit about the statistics involved. The article reports that “A recent Associated Press analysis of federal records found that 157 college-age people, 18 to 23, drank themselves to death from 1999 through 2005.” Come on, Associated Press, you can do better than that. We all know that statistics can be manipulated to prove a point, but we expect at least a comparison to “control” figures.

It’s possible that statistics might only have been available for the entire age 18-23 grouping. But probably not. Whenever alcohol is involved it’s common for law enforcement to at least record ages in categories “under 18″, “18-20″, “over 21″. Using the age group 18-23 tells nothing about how likely it is that the actual victims were under the legal drinking age of 21.

Second, what’s the rate of alcohol-induced death in the general population? Certainly, 157 deaths is 157 too many. Every single one of these cases is a tragedy. But how many 24- to 29-year-olds “drank themselves to death”? Octogenarians? The number is meaningless without context.

What’s even meant by “drinking to death” anyway? Does this include alcohol-related suicide? The numbers are too low to include drunk-driving figures (I’m assuming). But to me there’s a huge difference between a hazed fraternity pledge and a depressed teenager who intentionally mixes alcohol with sleeping pills.

I don’t expect all of these questions answered (or even touched on) in a thousand-word article. But a little context would be nice so that those of us who actually think critically can do so.

How do I feel on the issue at hand? Honestly, I’m not sure. I’m not so naïve to think that lowering the drinking age will reduce drinking. Certainly it won’t raise the incidence of drinking that much — go to a college campus and wander around on a Saturday night. It won’t take you long to find a stumbling undergrad wandering around.

Studies would have to be done to find the true effect of lowering the drinking age. My position’s actually pretty simple — if lowering the drinking age results in fewer fatalities, I’m all for it. Hangovers are recoverable. Death is not.

My hunch is that legalizing drinking at 18 will bring parties into the open rather than pushing them underground into fraternity houses and darkened dorm rooms. Will it make 18- to 20-year-old drinking more or less prevalent? Considering that pretty much anyone (of any age) who wants a drink can find one, I wouldn’t think the rate of alcohol consumption would change very much.

Would changing the drinking age result in higher rates of drunk driving? Who knows. Possibly, but from the number of beer and hard liquor bottles I find dropped from cars onto my lawn, I can’t imagine that drunk driving would get markedly worse either.

Ultimately, I believe in personal responsibility. Alcohol exists and as a society we’ve decided that its benefits outweigh its hazards. (Or, at least that the beverage industry has really good lobbyists.) Drunk driving should be heavily prosecuted, especially for exceptional cases (BAC greater than 0.15). Eighteen is old enough for a kid to go to war and shoot someone. The fact that this scenario only becomes a crime if he’s holding a can of Bud Light says a great deal about our priorities.