Media Predictions for 2009
On All Over Albany this morning, editor Greg Dahlmann asked the AOA community for its input on what the biggest stories of 2008 were, and what the most important news stories of 2009 will be.
Never turning down an opportunity to make predictions, I threw a few suppositions into the ring.
The Obama presidency will be the top story of 2009. The sky won’t fill with unicorns and rainbows overnight. But Obama will bring a sobriety to Washington, and things will get done. However, I predict there will be at least one major row between Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress. The popularity of Obama as president will lead to a minor resurgence in volunteerism and political action.
The financial crisis will be the second big story of 2009. At most one of the American automakers will fail, but probably none of them. Nationally, employment will continue to rise but will level out around the third quarter. There will be one or two more bailouts but Obama will make the industr(y/ies) asking for them beg.
The third big story will be something entirely unpredictable, either a political scandal, horrific crime, or natural disaster.
Locally, crime and gangs in Albany will continue unchecked to the detriment of all. There will be another high-profile crime of some kind, possibly at Albany High School.
There will be some kind of organized battle against one or more Catholic church closings. Bishop Hubbard will do fewer public appearances because of the vitriol.
I think the troubles in the mainstream media will continue. (No-brainer there.) The shrinking subscriber base of newspapers and the increasing quality and accuracy of blogs will continue to change where people get their news.
Newspaper-affiliated blogs will earn column-inches in print editions in order to cut costs on reporters.
With the Obama administration in the White House, right-wing talk radio will be more rabid and cry foul about the “liberal” media. Liberals will choose inexpensive blogs over the high-barrier-to-entry television and radio, and will ramp up their content in return. The idea of an unbiased media, even if theoretically attainable, will be abandoned in 2009 (or thereafter) because most people won’t believe it to be possible. This will damage the mainstream media even further.
I predict that one or more high-profile “real journalists” will either resign or be fired from their regular assignment and take up blogging full time.
As you state, citizen journalism will begin to be realized on a large scale. This will include blogs, audio and video podcasts, and even Wikipedia. CNN’s iReport is a laughable attempt, but it’s not far from where we’re going.
Finally, digital-rights management (essentially, copy protection) for music will die or be mortally wounded in 2009. This is ironic, because 2009 is the same year that television will go digital, accommodating the “broadcast flag” to effectively subject television programs to DRM.
The RIAA will slow down their legal battles against file-sharers as they realize they’re fighting a losing battle.
My final prediction is that at least half of the above predictions will be false by the end of 2009.
I’m including them here for later review. Someone remind me to revisit this at the end of 2009.
Am I entirely off base here?
Tags: aoa, greg dahlmann, media, news, predictions
January 23rd, 2009 at 1:01 am
I think you’re right on track with DRM being phased out. It’s already happening to iTunes, one of the biggest offenders (e.g. you can only play songs on authorized computers, can only authorize 5 machines, easy but unnecessary workaround, but I digress), with the introduction of “iTunes Plus,” better known as “What iTunes Should’ve Started Out As.” And I also concur with the RIAA working uphill against file sharers. However, I’m not sure that right-wing talk shows, such as Hannity’s Sirius program on Patriot (I forget which channel), could be more vocal than they were on the campaign trail, and my experience with Hannity, specifically, tells me that he takes equal passion in each cause he embraces. He’s a pretty cool guy, and he doesn’t afraid of anything.
Wow, long post. The end.
February 24th, 2009 at 6:37 pm
UPDATE PLOX.
Also, iTunes is charging $0.30 per purchased song for the upgrade to iTunes Plus, which removes the DRM and allegedly improves the quality, albeit not very noticeably for my purposes. Also I’m out like 40 bucks already because I have at least 6 or 700 songs from the iTunes Store, and I’m not even finished yet. But now when you buy songs, if it has a plus sign next to the price, it’s DRM-free, and they’re adding more and more songs to the iTunes Plus list every day, or so I hear. Unfortunately, I guess they haven’t made it to the James Gang yet, because I still can’t listen to “Funk No. 49″ on my Blackberry.